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Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Paper Industry Trends

On Wednesday of PaperWeek in Montreal, Kurt Schaefer, VP Fiber with RISI, will give a world outlook on the pulp and paper market trends and forecasts. Here are some statistics that stood out to me:

Regional trends over the next 5 years:
- US Growth 2-4%; downturn 2016
- Euro 1-2% growth; downturn 2016
- China 7-8% growth

Product trends over the next 5 years:
- Packaging good growth
- Graphic paper flat
- Tissue growth; but small volume compared to those above

- Containerboard long term winner- based on recovered paper
- Magazine continues to be threatened by the use of tablet PCs
     - Smartphone usage is growing dramatically which can affect a number of grades

  China will not be a major exporter of pulp & paper because they will have enough challenges keeping up with internal demand.
Per capita consumption of paper
- US 24 kg/person
- Japan 14 kg/person

- China 4 kg/person
As economic development grows west in China the consumption will start to approach that of Japan.

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